Coronavirus (COVID19) Asymptomatic Carriers – The bad and a possible resolution?

  • Posted on March 20, 2020 by
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While Italy continues to be brutally hit by this unrelenting disease, they have stepped up their efforts in testing in a the northern city of Vò .  They are taking on the task of testing everyone in a desperate effort to stop the virus and what they are finding is bad news and a possible resolution that escapes our current expectation.

The article states:

By some reports, between a half and three-quarters of carriers in Vò, were asymptomatic.

So what does this mean?  While I am by no means an Epidemiologist, it most likely means the virus is way more contagious that we think it is, and that many more people “have it” that previously believed, however these people exhibit no symptoms whatsoever, marking them as “asymptomatic carriers”.  How long the virus stays in an asymptomatic carrier is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say no more than the 21 days as reported being the largest outlier.

We can correlate these asymptomatic findings with another article written by Israeli nobel laureate Michael Levitt.  The most convincing he cites is that of the Diamond princess.  He equates the diamond princess where he states:

The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.

“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.

He’s basically saying the same thing that the Northern Italy town of Vò may be finding.  That many people may have natural immunity to the disease and it passes quickly and unnoticed due to their being asymptomatic.  Of the entire 3,711 people on board, 712 tested positive for the virus.  The question is, does that mean the other 2,999 were exposed however have naturally immunity, or they had symptoms that passed very quickly?  If so, it may mean the virus is much more contagious that previously thought, and that everyone on the Diamond Cruise ship was exposed, but only 19.2% showed symptoms.  Of those 19.2% (712) 7 of them passed away representing just under 1%.  Keep in mind however they had exceptional medical care due to Japan’s medical system not being overrun like that of Italy’s.



What does all this mean?  Like I said, I am no Epidemiologist, so take it with a grain of salt.  But if this is more contagious that previously thought, and 20% of those who do contract it show symptoms, that means potentially 80% are asymptomatic.  Now of the 20% that do show symptoms, approximately 20% of them need medical care in terms ventilators or respirators, resulting in about a 1% death rate of symptomatic cases.  This should not be taken lightly, as this is heartbreaking and will severely affect us, our families, and our society as a whole.  That is the bad, the very bad.  But the potential bright light of that, is if it is so contagious, the hope is this thing will run it’s course quickly.  Let’s just pray we can stave it off long enough to ensure we do not overwhelm the heroes that work in hospitals, putting their lives on the line to save us all.

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